Salmon spot price predicted to bottom out at NOK 53 per kilo
Strong biological development has led to higher salmon production and pushed prices down this year. Arctic Securities now believes in better market balance.
Published
The market-influencing spot price of Norwegian farmed salmon will bottom out at NOK 53 (£4.22) per kilo in July and August, and will average NOK 72 in the second half of the year, a seafood analyst believes.
Christian Olsen Nordby, head of equity research and seafood analyst at Arctic Securities, gave the forecast to Fish Farming Expert’s Norwegian sister site, Kyst.no.
“The salmon market so far in 2026 is characterised by good biology and an associated high supply of salmon, especially in the first quarter. As a consequence of this, prices have been weaker than expected. Salmon prices are also characterised by a stronger Norwegian krone, which hits farmers’ bottom line directly,” said Nordby.
The price of success
While weaker prices are often associated with challenges in the industry, Nordby believes that the explanation this time is largely the opposite.
High harvest weights, high superior share, and low mortality in Norway have contributed to more salmon coming on to the market.
“There are actually very positive reasons that should increase the profitability of the industry in the long term,” he said.
He believes that today’s price level shows that supply is still somewhat higher than demand.
“The price is in practice the balance, and with a price of around 60 to 65 kroner there is a bit too much supply in relation to demand. However, it is not entirely unusual in the summer that we get such results.”
Demand is still good
At the same time, he points out that demand has remained relatively high.
“Overall, so far this year, demand has developed well, with around 5% growth measured in euros. This has been greatly helped by China.”
Among export markets for Norwegian salmon, the analyst is particularly concerned about developments in China and the United States.
“China has been strong so far this year, while the US has been weaker. We believe the development in China will continue, while the US will be interesting to follow. The US tariffs have not helped the market.”
Better in autumn
Arctic Securities expects salmon prices to strengthen throughout the autumn after a weak summer market.
“We believe the price in the second half of the year will average 72 kroner, and that it will bottom out at 53 kroner in July and August.”
Looking ahead, he believes that demand in particular will determine how quickly the price recovers.
“If we see stronger demand at the same time as supply growth comes down, the market could pick up through the first half of 2027,” he concludes.
