Prices push for record
Salmon of 6kg and over are fetching an extraordinary NOK 70-75 (£5.39 – 5.78) per kilo in Norway this week, due to low harvest volumes and the weakness of the NOK, according to Nordea.
Nordea’s Kolbjørn Giskeødegård reflects that: “Driven by low availability and weak NOK…we are now seeing one of the highest weekly prices ever coming up. Indications are spreading somewhat, the range as per today is however indicated at NOK 63-67 per kilo for 3-6 kilo salmon and NOK 70-75 for 6 kilo+ fish.”
“The biomass situation,” he continues, “is challenging as the volume available for harvesting in the next 6 months is substantially lower than it was last year. In addition…air temperatures have dropped 15-20 degrees since late December and the outlook for the next few weeks is very cold.”
He predicts that this will negatively influence both feed sales and the growth of the fish.
Looking back on 2015, Giskeødegård, reflects that: “The salmon prices is expected to be close to NOK 44 on average in Q4, which is NOK 5.9 (15%) higher than in 2014 and also NOK 3.8 higher than Q3 2015.
“Improved underlying demand and more favourable NOK level is key explanations to this as volumes in Q4 2015 is higher y/y. It is also worth noting that the EUR/NOK was at record high levels also in December 2014 (NOK 9.1 on average).
The average spot price in 2015 was NOK 40.4, which is 1.5% higher than in 2014. As the NOK suffered a 13% trade-weighted weakening in 2015, customers enjoyed a price decline of over 11% on average compared with 2014.
“We believe this has been a major demand stimulus, resulting in higher price forecasts for 2016,” Giskeødegård concludes.
