Salmon price increase will arrive later than expected, says analyst
Nordic corporate bank SEB has lowered its expectations for a rise after weak developments in the second quarter
Published
SEB analyst Sander Lie still expects higher salmon supplies than previously anticipated and believes an increase in the price of the fish will take longer than the market is hoping for, reports Fish Farming Expert's Norwegian sister site, Kyst.no.
In a new analysis, SEB is upgrading its expectations for global salmon supply growth after stronger-than-expected developments, particularly in Norway.
The bank now estimates global supply growth of three percent 3% in 2026, 1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028. At the same time, analysts believe that normalisation in the market will come later than previously assumed.
"Although we believe we are approaching a turning point in supply growth, the harvest rate in the most important farming regions has surprised on the upside recently," writes Lie.
Lowers price expectations
SEB also points out that salmon prices have been weaker than expected throughout the second quarter. An average price of around NOK 73 (£5.82) per kilo in the quarter, combined with a soft start to the third quarter and higher supply, means that the bank has become more cautious in its price forecasts.
The new expectations are an average price of NOK 75 per kilogram in 2026 and NOK 82 per kilogram in both 2027 and 2028.
The lower price estimates also mean that SEB is significantly below market expectations for earnings at the large listed fish farming companies.
For 2026, the bank's EBIT estimates are between 7% and 13% below consensus, while estimates for 2027 are 3% to 13% lower.
According to the analysis, this means that the market could face several downward adjustments to earnings expectations when companies present figures for the second quarter in August.
SalMar is SEB's best choice
Among the fish farming companies, SEB again points to Scottish Sea Farms co-owner SalMar as its preferred investment.
According to the analysis, the company is better protected if salmon prices remain low, due to, among other things, low production costs, a favourable contract share and lower profit risk than its closest competitors. The bank also highlights strong EBIT margins, cash flow, and dividend capacity as important competitive advantages.
