Dip in Norway production will lift salmon prices, say analysts

A predicted fall in the volume of salmon produced in Norway in the first half of this year is expected to give prices a lift, according to analysis in a report by Rabobank’s RaboResearch unit.

The report lead authored by seafood analysts Novel Sharma and Gorjan Nikolik says that Norway’s production in Q1 will fall by 3% and in Q2 by 2% compared to the same periods last year, when Norway’s salmon leaped by 13% and 27% respectively, driving down returns.

As Norway is far and away the world’s biggest Atlantic salmon producer, this dip is likely to mostly or completely offset supply increases of 3% in Chile, 4% in the UK and in Canada, and 10% each in the Faroes and “others” (Ireland, Tasmania, Iceland, etc) in H1 2026.

Sharp slowdown

“Global salmon supply is expected to grow by 0% to 2% in the first half of 2026, marking a sharp slowdown after a record year,” write the analysts.

“For Norway, favourable climatic conditions, larger smolt sizes, and effective sea lice treatments underpinned strong output in 2025. However, aggressive harvesting in Q2 and Q3 2025 has left biomass levels depleted, limiting growth prospects. Norwegian supply is forecast to contract slightly in the coming months, a trend already visible in the fourth quarter of last year.”

Chile also harvested heavily in the last two months of 2025, limiting supply growth in H1 to the low single digits, they add.

Sharma and Nikolik add that prices have already rebounded from recent lows in Europe and the United States, with further recovery anticipated. They add that in the US, salmon continues to offer competitive value compared to other proteins, and in Europe easing inflation has supported consumption. Salmon has also been boosted by low catch quotas for cod, which has led to record prices for the fish.

“Demand is also expected to hold firm in Asia and Latin America, where salmon penetration surged in 2025 amid abundant supply,” say the analysts.