'We've never seen a situation like this year'
Norwegian Seafood Council analyst Paul T. Aandahl says salmon prices in May fell more than ever before compared to the previous year – while export volumes reached record levels.
Published
During a conference in Bergen, the seafood analyst from the Norwegian Seafood Council pointed to a historic development in the salmon market in recent months, reports Fish farming Expert's Norwegian sister site, Kyst.no.
"The price has fallen, the volume has increased, and the difference between this year's and last year's May price is the largest we have ever measured," he said during the conference.
Norway's exports of fresh whole salmon increased by 31% in the first five months of the year, while the average price has fallen by 21%.
"In April and May we have had an extraordinary increase. Looking back 10 years, we have never seen anything like this in these months," said Aandahl.
He also pointed out that there has been more superior salmon on the market and fewer production fish, as a result of good growing conditions.
Exports of frozen fillets are up 17%.
US and China drive growth
The seafood analyst is also clear that there are two markets that stand out in particular in 2025, namely the United States and China.
“Exports to the US are up 50% in volume so far this year, when converted to round weight. This applies to almost all product categories – whole fish, fresh and frozen fillets,” said Aandahl.
He also pointed out that both volume and value increased into the US in April – the latest monthly data available.
Regarding China, he emphasises that growth is even greater.
"We have an increase of 119% in round weight. This is due to both better market access and the fact that imports have generally increased. Most of the fish goes to the processing industry and then to home consumption – it's sashimi that matters," he said.
Stronger market in autumn
Aandahl pointed out that salmon prices have fallen earlier this year than last year, and says that this could contribute to increased demand in the coming months.
"We are now seeing that more people are buying salmon, and that they are buying more often and in larger quantities. It is a completely different starting point than last year, when the price remained high until May."
He highlighted developments in the French market as an illustration.
"Prices fell, campaign activity increased, and then we saw growth in both frequency and volume per purchase."
Aandahl concluded that the signals from the consumer market give reason for optimism.
"I think we will have a stronger market this autumn than we had a year ago," he said.
