Salmon price might increase 13% this year
During the seminar ‘Rebuilding the Chilean Salmon Industry’ organized by the pharmaceutical company PHARMAQ in Puerto Montt, Chile, Angel Cabrera also detailed that this price increase might became 6.1% by just comparing December 2009 and December 2010.
He added that this situation is explained by three variables: improved economical activity in the major salmon markets (USA, Europe and Japan) which has a subsequently growth on demand; in regard to supply, the global salmon production might be experiencing lower results this year; and a strengthened dollar.
Moreover, he said that “the American dollar would become stronger this year because the American economy is recovering faster than other economies. Due to this, attractiveness of dollar denominated assets will be higher, for example American stocks will became more attractive than its European or Japanese similes. Besides, because of its faster recovery USA will probably start increasing their interest rate plenty before than other economies, something that favours dollar in comparison with other competitive currencies and encourage investors to increase their demand for that currency”.
Finally, he explained that this forecast is a result of analysis of the salmon price behaviour over the last 15 years taking into account the incidence of the three variables described above and a statistical model that determinates the effect of changes in each variable.
Angel Cabrera studied commercial engineering at the Catholic University of Chile and holds a Master in Economics from the Harvard Business School. He is partner of the consulting company Forecast and member of the Chilean Group of Monetary Policy (GPM).
