Norwegians to profit from Chilean troubles
Nordea analyst Kolbjørn Giskeødegård claims that buyers are seeking NOK 36 per kg while sellers are pushing for NOK 37 per kg.
Giskeødegård said: “Low supply to the US market following the customs-strike in Chile has prompted US salmon prices to increase, which again has lifted European prices. The customs strike in Chile ended this morning, and we expect salmon prices in USA to return to the levels prior to the strike (low NOK 30’s per kg). We also see a risk that too much salmon in too short time into the US market might bring prices even lower the first weeks. Long term risk is that US importers will consider Chilean salmon even less attractive than before, held together with ban on antibiotic treated fish - all these are factors favouring European salmon further in the US market.”
Fishmeal price spike
Giskeødegård also predicts a spike in fish meal prices, following a forecast by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which predicts an El Nino event of a magnitude such has occurred only 3 times in the last 35 years.
Although the first season fisheries started very well, the anchovy fishery has now slowed down and the fish have moved south where sea temperatures have been more normal. If the upcoming El Niño strikes the way the Australian Bureau indicates, Giskeødegård foresees a price hike of 100%.
“A combination of a strong USD and a new fish meal/oil price spike will lead to a sustained high feed cost for the fish farmers, despite the decline in fish meal and oil prices in recent months together with soy bean meal prices,” he predicts.
