Post Referendum Blues?

By Phil Thomas, Chairman of the Scottish Salmon Producers’ Organisation (SSPO)

At the time of the last edition of this publication no one in Scotland could think far beyond the Scottish independence referendum, which was held on the 18 September. A close result was predicted and tensions were emerging in the public debate. Post-referendum, things have settled down a little but many people internationally are still asking about the outcome and about the implications, especially for business. So, let’s deal with the facts first. The Scottish referendum was a huge democratic success. Some 85% of voters turned out to express their views on the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Approximately 55%, over 2 million people were against the proposition, and approximately 45%, just over 1.6 million people, were in favour. Interestingly, although not germane to the outcome, out of 32 areas where the votes were collected, 26 areas (87%) voted ‘No’. However, the 4 areas which voted ‘Yes’ were high-population areas, around the cities of Glasgow and Dundee. Thus the process of democracy resulted in a very clear-cut decision - the people of Scotland had voted and expressed their unequivocal view. However, little in Scottish politics seems to be quite as simple as that. Late on in the campaign the three political parties in favour of maintaining the constitutional integrity of the UK (Conservative Party, Labour Party and Liberal Democrats) issued a joint statement saying that, in the event of a ‘No’ vote, further powers would be devolved to the Scottish Government anyway. Moreover, a detailed proposal on this would be put to the UK Parliament in May 2015. So, at present, all interested parties in Scotland – including industry, public bodies and institutions – are submitting their views to a Commission led by Lord Smith of Kelvin to advise the UK Government on which additional powers should be devolved to Scotland, within the UK. However, alongside this structured constitutional process, other events are serving to muddy the waters of the constitutional and political debate. First, a proportion of disappointed independence supporters, including some Scottish National Party (SNP) members of Scottish Parliament, have taken the referendum ‘No’ as a qualified ‘Yes’, and are continuing their independence campaign. Additionally, the promise of more powers for the Scottish Parliament has unleashed English nationalism and promoted a debate about the UK constitutional arrangements and devolution of UK Parliamentary powers to England and to the regions of England. Second, the SNP Party Leader (and Scottish Government First Minister) Alex Salmon has stood down from his party post: he has been replaced by Nicola Sturgeon his Deputy, who has become First-Minister-Elect, Moreover, in effecting this change the SNP has publicly displayed its characteristic Teutonic efficiency and very disciplined political organisation. Third, the Scottish Labour Party Leader (and Scottish Parliament Opposition leader) Johann Lamont has stood down, whilst strongly criticising the UK Labour Party’s failure to adjust to the realities of Scottish devolution. The three candidates seeking to be her successor are politically from the far-left, centre and right-wing of the party, and it looks as if that internal in-fighting and Trade Union interventions could result in the election creating a public perception of disarray. Finally, the opinion polls are now pointing to the Labour Party being vulnerable to a major loss of Scottish seats to the SNP in the UK Parliament elections on 7 May 2015. Moreover, if that occurs, the SNP could be well placed to achieve a governing majority in the Scottish Parliament elections, on 5 May 2016. Having lost the referendum, the SNP seems poised to gain ground in the forthcoming election campaigns. Thus, over a few short weeks, the absolute clarity and certainty of the ‘No’ vote in the Scottish referendum has been overtaken by a quagmire of political and constitutional process. So, will this affect business in Scotland? Well, almost everyone has an anecdotal story of stalled investment during the referendum campaign. But, that issue is now well behind us. The present political machinations simply reflect the complexity of the UK’s constitution and the kinds of political uncertainties that are found in many if not most advanced liberal democracies. In practice, whichever political party or parties is are power in the UK Parliament and in the Scottish Parliament, Scotland’s economic policies will remain overwhelmingly focused on ‘sustainable economic growth’ and the development of key industry sectors, including specifically food and drink. Thus the further development of salmon farming and of value added processing will continue to be a major national and regional economic development priority. In simple terms, post-referendum, the priorities for business and the business environment will remain largely unchanged.