The end is nigh?
Randers does not belong to any obscure religious sect that believes the world will end - he is a respected intellectual who has analyzed conditions like population growth, climate change, social cohesion and food supply. In his speach at the AquaVision Conference in Stavanger today, however, he does not any great cause for optimism.
"Population growth will stop by itself, increases in consumption will stop, there will be more poverty in the world, there will be enough resources, there will be enough food to those who can afford to pay, and last but not least, the world is heading for a climate catastrophe that will increase in intensity in the second half of the 21st century," summarises Randers.
"Some believe that market capitalism will solve the problems. Thats nonsense. We need management. We need electric cars, even if they are more expensive to produce than a regular car. We have for 20 years tried to achieve a CO2 tax, but the achievements in this area are minimal and make no difference at all. Since both capitalism and democracy will be present over the next 40 years, my predictions will come true," he says, before going on to talk about income distribution.
USA down, China up
Income per person in the US will go down considerably over the next 40 years. The same will happen in the EU/OECD, but not as much as in the US. China is the winner. In 2050, China will have overtaken Europe. The poor countries will remain poor. Over the last 40 years they have increased from 1 to 2 USD per person in income. Within the next 50 years the poor world will go from 2 to 4 USD / capita.
Salmon are no.2
"Food consumption will increase by 60% over the next 40 years. It will be the wealthy markets in the rich countries that increase the most. And, since no one wants to produce cheap food, it will also be hunger in the world for the coming 50 years, says Randers. The demand for high quality protein will increase. Chicken will increase most, aquaculture will be a good number 2. Aquaculture will be affected by climate change, the ecological footprint of aquaculture will increase and it will become more expensive to produce sustainable than unsustainable," he continues.
