Salmon slump blamed on poor planning

According to Martin Jaffa, of Callander MacDowell, the recent nosedive in prices, by around NOK 10/kg from a yearly high to a yearly low in just two weeks, mean that prices are now around NOK35/kg.

However, Jaffa observes, such contrasting fortunes are purely due to the holiday season, and should have been predicted.

Writing in his weekly newsletter, Jaffa reflects: “Salmon prices are always subject to swings at this time of year because it is the holiday season. The large swings are inevitable simply because Norwegian holidays do not match those in Europe. Norwegians tend to go on holiday en-mass in July for what is known as the Fellesferie, often described as three weeks of national paralysis when Norway appears to stop. There is no set date for these holidays but most Norwegians start their vacation around the second week of July. During this time, salmon harvests are reduced and prices soar as supply is restricted by this national vacation.

“Once Norway returns to normality and a more usual harvesting rate resumes, many Europeans begin to take their holidays. Demand for salmon drops off, yet supply is maintained and – surprise, surprise – the price drops. This is so predictable yet every year the holiday season appears to take everyone by surprise.

“There is no fixed holiday in the UK, but stores are much quieter. Currently several stores are offering discounts on salmon products in the hope of stimulating those customers that venture into store to buy. Whole salmon can be had for £4.97/kg and salmon fillet for just over £9/kg. By comparison, French shoppers will find such offers hard to come by. This is because many smaller stores simply do not bother offering fresh fish at all. Those shoppers looking for fish are faced with a stainless steel counter and a notice stating closed for at least three weeks. The stores that do open their fish counter usually have a reduced offering. The French market is well off the boil.

“Perhaps if Norwegian exporters want to reduce the swings in price, they need to plan ahead and ensure that those fish that will be harvested have a market rather than trying to find a buyer for those fish that have already left the farm.

“Maybe exporters might consider taking their future holiday in their key target markets so they can see what the real hurdle they have to overcome in servicing a market that has gone on holiday.”