Prices to remain high most of the year
The recovery of the Chilean industry, as well as the positive outlook for American salmon fisheries, indicates that supply of salmon to the US market could be higher in 2011. This, despite targeting different market segments, could ease the pressure on prices, which have shown an upward trend in the fresh fillets segment, while the whole fish markets have remained stable with a slight upward trend in some products. Currently, supplies are adequate for slow demand. This could drive prices down, which, in the mid-term, could see demand pick up.
The EU is still growing in terms of salmon consumption although the high price for Atlantic salmon is forcing processors in particular to look for alternatives. This explains in part the strong growth in imports of frozen salmon products from China. Cost is also driving the outsourcing of the smoking industry to Poland and the Baltics. During the first quarter of 2011, Norway’s salmon exports to EU-27, although up in value by 17%, fell back almost 4% in volume.
France, the largest market for salmon in the EU, grew by 4% in volume in 2010. The fresh categories are showing the strongest growth, partly because of the decline in Chilean frozen salmon exports. Norway remains the principal supplier dominating the fresh whole (71%) and fresh fillet (91%) categories.
The rapid growth of China’s frozen fillets exports, which has now reached 40% of imports, is significant. A large share of this is Pacific species rather than Atlantics.
In the smoked category, Poland dominates with 73% of French imports. All other foreign suppliers, including Scotland, have seen their share diminish as a result. This is all the more remarkable as the share of Poland only a few years back was less than 5% of the import market. French domestic smokers continue to target the top segments but are more affected by higher costs than foreign suppliers.
During the first quarter of 2011, Norway’s exports to the French market dropped.
German import volumes were flat in 2010 (+0.6%) after a large increase in 2009 (+19%). The German market is price sensitive and demand was held back by high prices throughout the year. Norway dominates overall followed by Poland, which has captured the smoked segment. China is also showing strong growth in the frozen category, reaching almost 18 000 tonnes last year.
During the first quarter of 2011, Germany’s imports from Norway fell back 4% in volume.
Imports were flat in 2010 in both the fresh and frozen categories. Norway dominates the fresh Atlantic segment and Chile the frozen Pacific category. Imports from Chile were only slightly down from 2009 (-8.3%), as Chilean producers continues to give priority to the Japanese market for its coho exports in particular.
Chile’s salmon production is increasing but it is unclear how much will come to market this year. The production goals for 2012 and 2013 set by Chile’s salmon industry are ambitious but whether the rapid projected growth can be sustained long-term is still open to debate, both in Chile and in Europe. Prices will therefore remain high for most of the year and only weaken when additional supplies from Chile reach the market during the second half.
