Salmon prices not likely to fall before end of 2011

Across Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons and Waitrose, the price of a basket of 100 chilled salmon products has gone up 15 per cent over the past 12 months, from an average of £3.76 per item to £4.41, while a basket of 50 frozen salmon products has risen 8 per cent, from £2.66 to £2.88 [BrandView.co.uk], the Grocer reports. Availability of salmon on the world market would improve in the fourth quarter of 2011 and through 2012, as Chilean salmon production started recovering, it said. "This marks a new cycle for the salmon market," Rabobank seafood analyst Gorjan Nikolik told the Grocer. Now at their highest for three years, prices were likely to decline over the next three years and would begin contracting towards the year-end, he said, starting in the US.

"European prices will also be affected due to a partial diversion of Norwegian exports back to the EU, as well as a return of sales of frozen salmon from Chile to the EU market," he added. Many EU frozen seafood suppliers were already looking to start sourcing Chilean frozen salmon again in order to offer shoppers a lower-cost alternative to fresh, he told the Grocer. In the UK and Europe, much frozen salmon imported from Chile ends up going into the discounters.