No let-up in El Niño effect on marine ingredients supply
El Niño, the climate pattern marked by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is currently having a significant impact on global fishmeal and fish oil production, marine ingredients association IFFO said today.
Peru, which typically accounts for around 20% of world fishmeal production, has been particularly affected by El Niño. This has significant implications for global supply of marine ingredients, which remain an important part of aquaculture diets.
The quota for Peru’s first 2026 North-Central anchovy season was set at 1,914,049 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 27% of the estimated biomass. Fishing activity was repeatedly interrupted by closures before being suspended on June 10, with only about 25% of the quota caught. Consequently, Peruvian marine ingredient production has remained well below historical levels so far in 2026.
Not over quickly
IFFO said El Niño conditions continue to strengthen and are forecast to persist into early 2027, while North-Central fishing remains effectively inactive. A new scientific monitoring operation has therefore been authorised to assess anchovy distribution and biological conditions and determine whether there may be scope for further fishing activity.
Chile has also faced challenging fishing conditions, with catches during the first part of 2026 remaining well below the previous year’s levels and a high incidence of juveniles further constraining fishing activity.
Northern Europe has also experienced lower raw material availability as well, contributing to the decline in global marine ingredient production, although this reduction is unrelated to El Niño.
Total fish biomass in major northern areas like Norway and the North Sea has dropped significantly due in part to historical fishing pressure, while record-high sea surface temperatures have disrupted marine food webs, lowering the survival rates of larval and juvenile fish and forcing cold-water species further north and further offshore.
Stricter management limits and reduced total allowable catches on small pelagic species have also directly constrained the raw materials available for fishmeal and fish oil production.
Second half offers hope
“The outlook for the full year will increasingly depend on production during the second half of 2026, when marine ingredient output typically strengthens in important producing countries such as Morocco, China, India and Oman,” IFFO said in a press release.
“The performance of these regions will therefore play an important role in determining the extent to which lower production elsewhere can be offset and, ultimately, the overall global production outcome for 2026.”
The shortage of marine ingredients has put the squeeze on China’s supply of imported raw materials for marine ingredients production, said IFFO, but it has been using up fishmeal stocks. It will rely on local production when the fishing season starts in August and September.
“The initial estimates indicate that domestic output of marine ingredients in the first half of 2026 is better than the levels seen a year earlier,” said IFFO.
“According to data from the China Feed Industry Association, aquafeed production reached 11.1 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, representing a 17.4% year-on-year increase, and supporting an increase in domestic aquaculture production from approximately 29.9 million tonnes in the first half of 2025 to around 31.1 million tonnes during the same period in 2026.”
