SalMar made the prediction in its first-quarter report, in which it stated: “After several quarters of growth, the situation in the UK is expected to reverse in 2018.
“In the first quarter, the harvested volume fell by 13 per cent compared with the first quarter 2017. In the second and third quarters, output is expected to decrease by 15 per cent and 11 per cent respectively.
“The total output of Atlantic salmon by UK fish farmers in 2018 as a whole is estimated at 155,500 tonnes, down 11 per cent on 2017.”
Despite the gloomy figures, Scottish Sea Farms increased harvest volumes by 600 tonnes to reach 6,500 tonnes in Q1, with gutted weight EBIT/kg reaching NOK 26.67, up from NOK 16 in Q4 2017 and NOK 24.22 in Q1 2017.
Fish affected by poor gill health were harvested out in the fourth quarter 2017 and the company now reports good biological status in all its operational areas.
Norway up 6%
The Norwegian industry’s output rose by 6% in the first quarter. SalMar expects this to continue all year, with the annual harvest totalling 1.28 million tonnes.
A sharp downturn in the growth rate in Chile is expected through 2018. After increasing by 25% in Q1, growth of 5% and 1% respectively are expected in the second and third quarters, followed by a 7% year-on-year fall in Q4. For 2018 as a whole, the volume harvested in Chile is expected to increase by 5% to 607,400 tonnes.
Harvested volume is expected to rise by 3% to 166,800 tonnes in Canada and the US in 2018, while in the the Faroes, the total output in 2018 is forecast to be 74,000 tonnes, down 8% on 2017.
SalMar expects to harvest 143,000 tonnes in 2018, with just over 40% coming in the first six months.
Year-on-year revenues up
SalMar generated gross operating revenues of NOK 2,531.0 million in the first quarter 2018, compared with NOK 2,780.6m in the fourth quarter 2017 and NOK 2,430.1m in the first quarter last year.
Operational EBIT came to NOK 708.1m in the period, practically unchanged from NOK 707.2 million in the previous quarter, but up from NOK 670.7m in the same period last year.
For the Group as a whole, this gave an operational EBIT per kg of NOK 22.21, compared with NOK 17.70 per kg in the fourth quarter 2017 and NOK 25.50 per kg in the first quarter last year.
Operating profit for the first quarter 2018 was NOK 859.8m, compared with NOK 488.6m in the corresponding period last year. The Q1 2017 figure was negatively affected by fair value adjustments totalling NOK 182.1m.